The voting behaviour in Nigeria has been attributed to many factors, such as clientelism, vote buying, party identification, the performance of the government, and ethnicity. Most of these studies have been done at a macro level. There were limited studies done on the rural dwellers. According to the World Population Review (2024), the Nigeria population stood at approximately 235 million. The rural population has 104 million rural dwellers (World Bank Group, 2023). That is approximately 44.26% of the Nigerian Population, and a substantial proportion of Nigerians live in rural areas. Thus, there is a need for conscious efforts to investigate the determinants of voting behaviour among the rural populace in Ibadan less-city.
Less-City can be described as an area that are less urbanized yet still under the influence of a major city. These areas are characterized by a blend of urban and rural features (David, Duncan & David, 2006).
Given that there are a significant number of rural dwellers in Ibadan less-city, it is very important to adopt a methodological approach to capture their voting behaviour. To achieve this, a descriptive design was employed for the study. The population for the study was Ibadan Metropolis, Oyo State, Nigeria. The target population was Ibadan-less city. A multi-stage sampling was employed for this research. In the first stage (5), local governments were randomly picked. Second, five less-cities were randomly picked from the sampled local governments. Third, the researchers and research assistants started with the first householder, skipping the next until we arrived at sixty (60) respondents. Finally, the total number of respondents for the study was (300) hundred. The instruments used to collect data were questionnaires designed by the researchers titled Evaluative and Non-Evaluative Questionnaires (V B Q). The instrument was subjected to test re-test reliability test; the researcher administered the same test on the same sample on two different occasions. The alpha value of the reliability test was 0.85.
The correlation analysis revealed a moderately strong positive correlation (r = .610) between government performance and voting behaviour among the rural populace, with a probability value below .05, indicating statistical significance. This agrees with Weghorst and Linderberg’s (2013) study on what drives the swing voters in Africa? Their findings imply that African voters are more autonomous and likely to withdraw support from poorly performing incumbents.
Also, the study found that vote buying does not significantly influence the voting behaviour of the rural populace, as demonstrated by both the weak correlation coefficient (r=.105) and the probability value exceeding the significance threshold (P>.05). This aligns with Vicente’s (2014) study on ‘Is vote buying effective? Evidence from field experience in West Africa,’ which found that while vote buying might induce higher voter turnout, voter education reduces its effects on voting behavior. The rural populace may still collect money from the candidates and parties that brought money to them and still vote for the candidate of their choice. The implication of the finding is that vote buying may occur but does not have significant effects on the decision of the rural populace to vote for their preferred candidate. In the same vein, Vicente’s findings imply that vote buying may lead to a large turnout of voters but not necessarily sway voters to vote against their will.
Furthermore, the study discovered that clientelism significantly influences the voting behaviour of the rural populace, as shown by the weak but statistically significant correlation (r=.294) and probability value below the significance threshold (P<.05). This aligns with Wantchekon’s (2003) study on clientelism and voting behaviour, which provides field experiment evidence from Benin showing that clientelism shapes voters’ decisions.
Based on the above empirical evidence, this study confirms that voting behaviour among the rural populace is primarily influenced by clientelism and the performance of the government, while vote-buying has no significant impact in Ibadan Less City. From these findings, the following recommendations are proffered:
1. The rural voters should be informed about the government’s achievements and plans through regular and periodic town hall meetings and community engagement programs.
2. An intervention program to reduce vote buying should be put in place through the voter education program.
Authors
Babatunde Jimi-Peters is an accomplished educator and researcher with decades of experience teaching undergraduate and postgraduate students. Holding a PhD in Social Studies Education from the University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria. Jimi-Peter’s research interests include Citizen Social Science, Computational civics, Citizenship, Civic and Social Studies, Human Rights and Social Justice, Politics, and Good Governance. Throughout his career, Jimi-Peters has had a strong commitment to addressing societal challenges through rigorous research and innovative teaching methods. He has conducted extensive field research, employing both quantitative and qualitative methodologies to explore complex issues such as Civic engagement, voting behaviour, and human rights. Remarkably, his doctoral research on cooperative learning strategies in civic education revealed significant insights into students’ performance. As a dedicated educator, Jimi-Peters has taught a variety of courses, including Contemporary Global Issues, Politics, Power and Government in Nigeria, Nationalism and Patriotism in Nigeria, at the Institute of Education, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria. He has also mentored numerous undergraduate projects, fostering the next generation of social scientists. Jimi-Peters is a proactive team player; he actively collaborates with colleagues and students to achieve organizational goals. Passionate about promoting human rights and social justice, Jimi-Peters is committed to exploring new research areas, including social citizenship and climate adaptation strategies. His work is driven by a desire to influence positive change in society and contribute meaningfully to academic discourse. A member of the Social Studies Educationists Association of Nigeria (SOSAN) and Regional Studies Association.
: Babatunde Jimi-Peters